Scoring a presidential debate is a subjective science. There is no objective scorecard that determines the winner. Victory is measured by opinion and analysis and very limited quantitative data.
For 90 minutes on Friday evening, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama sparred over the Wall Street bailout being negotiated back in Washington, tax cuts, spending increases, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear weapons in Iran, and non-conditional negotiations with the foreign leaders of Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela.
Senator Obama established his knowledge and command of foreign policy, and emphasized his economic plan to rehabilitate the American economy, but did not fully capitalize on McCain’s economic vulnerability. He denounced McCain’s mischaracterizations of his middle-class tax cuts and his vote to cut off funding for American troops, insisting that he voted against the bill because it did not include a timetable for withdrawal. He appeared poised, decisive, and direct most of the time. Although, Obama distanced himself from his professorial delivery, he never utilized the memorable political sound bite of debate combat effectively.
Senator McCain was unencumbered by the awkwardness of his prepared speeches, and delivered the most memorable lines of the night, but none that eclipsed Lloyd Bentsen’s denunciation of Dan Quayle in 1988. He shifted the economic discussion away from the credit crisis to tax cuts and excess spending by the federal government, a dodge that painted Sen. McCain as out of touch with the economic reality. He clumsily merged his original campaign pitch of familiarity and experience, which he had abandoned at the Republican Convention, with his new bumper sticker of “the original maverick,” but performed better as the debate returned to his home field advantage. He showcased his foreign policy expertise on Iraq, Afghanistan, and U.S. relations with Pakistan.
So, who won the debate?
Gallup’s post-debate poll said that Obama won the debate 46%- 34%, but 25% did not see or read any debate coverage or the debate itself. Bloomberg News declared Obama the victor 49%-44%.
The candidates did little to steal support from the ranks of the opposing party. There’s a saying in baseball, every team’s going to win 54 games and lose 54 games. It’s the other 54 games that count. Both candidates will be supported by the majority of their party regardless of their policy statements in the final weeks. The other 54 games are independents. According to Gallup, Sen. Obama won independents by ten points, 43%-33%. This would seem to give Obama a decisive victory, but these numbers are meaningless because there is no national election. Obama’s ten point gain nationally diffused across fifty-states tells us nothing about the electoral map.
The battleground state polls released early this week show that Senator Obama strategically won the debate if not substantively or stylistically. He increased his average lead in Pennsylvania and Colorado to five points (although they remain statistical toss ups), erased McCain’s leads in Ohio and Florida, and flipped traditional red states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana to toss ups.
It remains to be seen if Senator Obama’s gains arose from his debate performance or a response to the financial credit crisis, but certainly both McCain’s and Obama’s presidential aspirations will hinge on the fortunes of Wall Street and the American economy. |
