National opinion polls, while certainly riveting fodder for news analysis and commentary, fail as presidential soothsayers. National opinion polls are not effective determiners of presidential elections because majority vote does not propel a candidate into the West Wing. It is very feasible to limp into the Oval Office without a popular mandate. Yet, the networks and newspapers devote more time to analyzing meaningless polls which do not yield a comprehensive outlook on the election. My disappointment in the mainstream media stems not from the perceived bias towards either side of the aisle, but in failing to provide the public adequate, thorough analysis of the state of the election.
Over the last few days, the mainstream media has devoted many on-air segments and column inches to analyzing the latest round of Gallup opinion polls, which clearly show that Senator John McCain’s post-convention bump has eradicated Senator Barack Obama’s lead. A September 7th Gallup poll shows only a three point race between McCain and Obama (48%-45%).
Reporting Gallup opinion results is a superficial inspection of the electoral map. Presidents are elected by the Electoral College, not by the national popular vote. Just ask Al Gore. Regardless of your opinions of the 2000 election, it is a fact that President Bush was elected by Florida’s 25 electoral votes, which contravened the national popular vote. To appropriately assess the status of the election, one must examine the battleground of the “swing” states. These are states with divided electorates populated by a large number of independents. They consistently favor neither party and historically determine the presidency.
Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. As of today, conservative estimates put 157 electoral votes solidly in Obama’s camp. These are from die-hard Democratic states such as New York and California. Obama also has 60 electoral votes in states where he currently has a sizeable lead in the polls. Barring any strategic failures or unforeseen revelations, Obama’s lead in these states, outside the margin of error, is insurmountable at this point in the election calendar. Awarding Obama all the states that “lean” towards him gives him a combined total of 217 electoral votes. McCain on the other hand has 142 electoral votes locked up from solid Republican states such as Texas, Florida, Alabama and Georgia. He can reasonably count on 74 electoral votes from “leaning” states, giving him a total of 216. That leaves Obama 53 short and McCain 54 short with 105 electoral votes in play.
Of the remaining uncommitted states, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan are crucial swing states. A sweep of the “swing trinity” would yield 58 electoral votes and propel either candidate into the White House. Current polls show tight races in all three states. RealClearPolitics.com averaged all the national polls in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. Obama leads by 4.7 in Pennsylvania, 2.8 in Michigan, and McCain leads Ohio by 1.2%.
The economy is a major issue in these three states. Michigan’s 8.5 percent unemployment rate is the highest in the country. Blue-collar workers in Ohio and Pennsylvania have seen their jobs outsourced overseas. The candidates’ positions on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) will be deciding issues Pennsylvania and Ohio. McCain and Obama will be honing their personal narratives as well to appeal to the working class in the rural areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama will have to distance himself from his “bitter” comments and emphasize his support of the 2nd amendment. McCain will champion his decades of service to the country in the military and in Congress. Obama’s pro-choice position and support of civil unions could explain McCain’s slim lead in Ohio, where the gay marriage ballot measure initiated by Karl Rove increased Republican turnout in the state in the 2004 election.
With only 55 days until Election Day, the race is more or less tied. As new polls are released, leads will fluctuate as frequently as Bill O’Reilly is declared “Worst Person in the World.” The media needs to focus less attention on the same national popularity polls that select the next American Idol, and more emphasis on the shifting allegiances of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan independents who will determine the 44th president of the United States. |
